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Big networks
driving the cable upfront


Leveraging top-rated shows to stampede buyers

Jun 13, 2008

What's given the broadcast networks their huge advantage in the upfront market through the years is their ability to create a sense of urgency, holding out as bait their top-rated shows, knowing buyers would rush in and pay top dollar lest they lose out to a competing buyer.

It's an ability cable has long envied. What kept the cable networks from pulling it off was their historic inventory glut, with so many networks and so many more hours of programming, none of them of must-buy shows. Buyers knew what they didn't buy in the cable upfront they could always pick up later in the year.

That's all changed this year, and what it's led to is what buyers are now calling a bifurcated market, really two cable markets, the big players like Turner, NBC Universal and MTV Networks--and everyone else.

The big networks, following the lead of the broadcast networks, are moving inventory quickly and at premium prices, up in the high single digits in some cases, and they could be largely finished by next week.

For the other networks, the cable upfront could go on for weeks more.

What separates the two is the increasing amount of must-have shows on the top cable networks, such as TNT's "The Closer." It's enabled them to behave like the broadcast networks, effectively stampeding buyers anxious to nab that scarce ad inventory for their clients.

By then packaging that inventory with lesser-demand shows, as broadcast does, the big networks have been able to move great quantities of inventory, and quickly.

“The big agencies moved directly from the broadcast upfront to the broadcast-like cable networks,” says a network seller.

“A lot of the high-reach networks, the general entertainment networks and distinctively branded networks were registering budgets at the same time the broadcast networks were. I think we’ll be done by the end of next week.”

Turner, for instance, has sold roughly half the time it’s got up for sale in only a few days, say buyers.

In the case of the smaller networks, buyers feel no rush to buy, and many of them are cutting deals at favorable prices to unload as much inventory as they can.

When it's finally over, the cable upfront is expected to be up over last year in total dollars, perhaps to $8 billion or more.

The broadcast upfront is essentially finished, wrapping up in a few days with dollar volume slightly up over last year’s $9 billion.

Meanwhile, the urgency that has driven the broadcast and cable upfronts this year is expected to flow into syndication and possibly even the kids’ upfront.

Media buyers say advertisers are getting spooked by the price increases they’re seeing on broadcast and big cable networks, so they want to lock down prices as soon as they can.

Syndication, which sold roughly $3.1 billion in last year’s upfront, according to Merrill Lynch, is already moving, say buyers. A few deals are close to being completed and buyers say many syndicated programs, notably high-rated daytime shows, will go fast over the next couple of weeks.

The kids’ upfront, which has been weak in recent years at about $900 million, is also getting underway. Some distributors of kids’ programming say advertisers are registering budgets and a few deals are likely to be struck next week.

“Syndication is stirring,” says one buyer. “There’s not a lot of activity because cable is the main focus. But the bulk of cable is just about done now.”



Kevin Downey is a staff writer for Media Life.




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