Research
From TiVo, better data on ad skipping
By Kevin Downey
Apr 24, 2007, 08:42

At some point, media buyers and sellers will reach agreement on how best to include viewing of prerecorded TV shows in with live viewing in negotiating advertising deals.

But with the upfront television market now just weeks away, it doesn't look like it's going to happen this year for next season's fall shows. As in years past, sellers won't be able to charge for the millions of people who choose to watch their shows after recording them on TiVo and other such delayed-viewing devices.

The reason: For all the new data now provided by Nielsen Media Research on time-shifted viewing and viewing within commercial pods, buyers say they still lack the information they most need to set a value on DVR-ed shows: numbers on how many people are fast-forwarding through commercials when they watch shows in replay.

TiVo may have the answer. The DVR maker is offering buyers data on viewing on some of its digital video recorders that would reveal just how much ad-skipping does take place. But the information is new, and it could take buyers many months to analyze. That means it probably won't become a tool for negotiations until next year's upfront.

TiVo began offering its viewing data through its Stop||Watch system in February, and media buying agencies are only now signing up, including those owned by Interpublic, which yesterday became the first agency holding company to sign on.

TiVo’s Stop||Watch tracks viewing on 20,000 DVRs, including viewing of programs and commercials as they initially air and in DVR playback, and it does so on a second-by-second basis, which is far more refined than the minute-by-minute data provided by Nielsen.

“Nielsen is not able to currently measure fast-forwarding accurately because they are limited to minute data,” says Steve Sternberg, executive vice president of audience analysis at Interpublic agency Magna Global. “Fast-forwarded commercials can still be included in the average commercial minute ratings. [Stop||Watch] will help us see how television is really viewed in a DVR-enabled home.”

It’s critical for the networks that media buyers place some value on people watching commercials in playback.

If time-shifted viewing was included in ratings, each of the Big Four networks would see its 18-49 audience increase roughly 7 percent, or by some 300,000 viewers in an average minute of primetime, according to Nielsen data for the broadcast season through April 15.

When not including time-shifted viewing, ABC’s average 18-49 audience this season, for instance, is 4.24 million people. When including live viewing, meaning the original broadcast of a program, plus seven days of DVR playback, its audience goes up to 4.53 million people, an increase of 6.8 percent.

CBS’s audience goes up 6.6 percent. NBC’s audience increases 7.1 percent while Fox’s and the CW’s audience each goes up 7.5 percent.

Certain programs like ABC’s “Lost,” Fox’s “American Idol” and CBS’s “CSI” add more than 2 million viewers some weeks in DVR playback. These viewers are not currently included in the prices media buyers pay for commercials.

Nielsen has been making headway in counting viewers watching DVR-recorded programs. Last year it began measuring DVR playback and as of January it measures several levels of time-shifted viewing, including live-plus-same-day all the way up to live-plus-seven-day viewing.

But media buyers say this information still isn’t enough because it doesn’t track how many viewers are fast-forwarding through commercials on DVR-recorded programs.

Nielsen will begin issuing commercial ratings next month that will partially remedy this. Buyers note these will be based on average commercial-minute ratings within a program, however, not specific commercials.

TiVo’s Stop||Watch gets closer to actual commercial ratings.

This information will help buyers estimate the number of viewers fast-forwarding through commercials, but it will not replace Nielsen ratings as the currency used in negotiations. TiVo’s sample is too small for that and doesn’t necessarily reflect how people using other DVRs record and playback programs.

“This is not designed to replace Nielsen ratings,” says Sternberg. “[It’s] more to help us better understand how Nielsen’s measurement methodology needs to change. And while not representative of the entire country, 20,000 TiVo homes is a more robust sample than the number of DVR homes currently in Nielsen’s national sample.”