Next month's television upfront market will be healthy, some analysts believe, because the scatter market is so healthy.

But will it be?

The upfront may indeed be healthy, as projected, but how much that's driven by scatter is something else again.

The fact is, the strong scatter market behind some key analysts' forecasts has begun to weaken over recent weeks.

In broadcast, more inventory is available, indicating a slackening of demand among advertisers, and prices appear to be averaging well below the 15 percent to 20 percent premiums typical of a healthy scatter market.

Prices are tracking in the low- to mid-single-digit percentages over prices paid in last year’s upfront market for all but the highest-rated programs and the most in-demand dayparts like early morning news.

“I’m not aware of any sell-out situations in second quarter. As far as I know, everyone is open for business,” says Chris Allen, vice president and associate director of national broadcast at GSD&M in Chicago, speaking of broadcast.

“I think there’s still good inventory out there. Depending on what weeks you need to buy, and if you’re willing to package it in with less-desirable dayparts, you can still get decent deals.”

Cable is also weaker, say buyers.

The sheer number of cable networks--more than 100--gives buyers the leverage to hold scatter prices down, observes Jan Hummel, director of national broadcast at MARC USA.

“We just finished a fairly major scatter buy for almost the entire second quarter across 25 cable networks,” says Hummel. “We paid anywhere from minus two [percent] to plus one, with only one network getting above that. What we have in our pocket is that there absolutely isn’t a must-buy. That gives us a lot of power.”

Going into next month's upfront market, worth some $24 billion in advertising commitments for the upcoming season, scatter demand is one closely watched indicator for whether buyers will come to market with bigger commitments from their advertiser clients. Higher demand will mean higher overall upfront sales--typically 75 percent or so of the coming year’s inventory in the case of broadcast. It will also mean higher prices, especially for choice inventory on top shows.

Why is scatter such a closely watched indicator? If demand is up, prices will be up, and if prices go up enough, the thinking goes, it will set off warning bells in the minds of buyers. Fearing the prospect of paying higher prices in the coming season, they'll rush into the upfront to lock in lower prices while they have a chance.

If scatter demand is weak and prices flat, buyers are more inclined to gamble that they will stay that way and will commit fewer ad dollars in the upfront market.

It was largely on a stronger scatter market that Merrill Lynch analyst Jessica Reif Cohen last week forecast a decent 3 percent increase in upfront spending this year for both broadcast networks and cable television. She noted that scatter prices had risen about 10 percent since January.

But not everyone puts such faith in scatter as a trusty upfront indicator, believing that the networks purposely hold back inventory to make demand look stronger than it really is, in effect spooking the market.

In any case, as media buyers note, the scatter market for the broadcast ad time may well tighten up again, and for two reasons.

One is that the networks owe advertisers makegoods to compensate for shortfalls in ratings guarantees where shows performed poorly. Those makegoods--additional ad spots--will be taken out of scatter inventory, with a tightening effect.

Advertisers typically want these make-goods during the regular broadcast season, which ends in May.

The other reason is that advertising demand almost always picks up at the end of the season as the networks roll out season and series finales, which typically draw larger audiences. That will tighten up inventory even more as the upfront approaches in late May.

“The networks have done a good job of maintaining the integrity of the upfront market by, for the most part, keeping prices above upfront prices,” says GSD&M’s Allen. “That helps entice advertisers to continue buying on a long-term basis rather than buying everything in scatter.”