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This fall, Tuesdays
are Fox's to lose
With 'House' a hit, much will ride on 'Bones'
By Toni Fitzgerald
Everyone knows that come January and the return of
“American Idol,” Fox will dominate Tuesday nights. But this fall Fox
may well dominate Tuesdays even before “Idol's” return.
Credit will go to the returning "House"
and the new "Bones."
“House” became a big hit at 9 p.m. last year, leading
out of the reality show, and last week it debuted to strong numbers,
with the promise of providing Fox a major boost for the night this
fall.
Citing shows like "House," many buyers have been
predicting a winning fall for the network. And a strong fall would give Fox a huge advantage heading into first
quarter.
Last year, with a far weaker Tuesday, it was in fourth place
for the night and in fourth place in overall ratings going into
January.
Against minimal competition last week, the return of “House,”
paired with the premiere of
“Bones,” averaged a 4.9 in 18-49s, more than
enough to win the night. If those numbers hold, the two shows could
well own the night into January.
As for the other Big Three networks, they’re making some
very risky Tuesday moves in anticipation of Fox’s first quarter
dominance, and how they fare will depend on how their new shows
fare.
CBS could finish second on the strength of its
gaining “NCIS” and the returning “Amazing Race.” Last year
it tied for NBC for second with a 3.7 average on Tuesdays.
Its new 10 p.m. drama “Close to Home,” from Jerry
Bruckheimer, hasn't excited media buyers, but it may improve on
former timeslot occupant “Judging Amy’s” low 18-49 average.
NBC has the riskiest hour of the night at 9, one that could pull
it into second or drop it to fourth. Much will depend on its “My Name Is
Earl,” which debuts tonight.
Media buying agency
Carat USA is so impressed by the new show that it's predicting that NBC will finish first among 18-49s on the
night.
But others have their doubts. "Earl" is a sophisticated comedy much like “Scrubs,” which
occupied the timeslot last season and averaged just a 3.1. NBC has struggled in the 9 p.m. hour since “Frasier”
left in 2004. The night was not helped by “The Office,” which
aired a 9:30 and averaged only a 1.9.
This fall "The Office" follows
"Earl," and at least one researcher thinks it's a poor
match.
“Whatever resulted in these
comedies making the cut, they don’t seem at all compatible with
one another, and seems to be a sign of weak comedy development at
NBC,” writes Magna Global USA’s Steve Sternberg in his preseason
preview.
Another bad sign: 8 p.m.’s “Biggest Loser” premiere
was down 23 percent last week from last year’s 4.3 average. The 10
p.m. “Law & Order: Special Victims Unit” should easily win
its timeslot and could make up for the night’s earlier miscues.
ABC has the night’s most extensive revamp. At 8 it’s
pairing “According to Jim,” which averaged a 3.9 last year at 9,
with second-year sitcom “Rodney.” The pair could finish second
in the timeslot behind “Bones.”
But the female-focused “Commander” has received mixed
reviews at 9 p.m. Carat predicts it will be ABC’s biggest new hit.
Other media buyers, pointing to “House’s” continued strength,
say it could fail big time.
At 10 p.m., “Boston Legal” relocates from
Sunday. Though ABC calls the show a hit, it was losing a good
portion of “Desperate Housewives’” lead-in, and it won’t
have that padding here.
ABC could well finish fourth again on Tuesdays after
averaging a 3.3 last season.
The WB is in great shape with “Gilmore Girls” stronger
than ever and last week’s “Supernatural” holding more than 80
percent of its lead-in audience.
UPN
has all but given up on Tuesday it seems, scheduling “America’s
Next Top Model” repeats and the “Melrose Place” wannabe
“Sex, Love and Secrets" at 9
p.m.,
which Media Life readers tabbed as one of
the new shows with the least potential.
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Tuesday’s
2005-’06 fall schedule
New
shows in bold
Moved shows in italics
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ABC
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8 p.m.
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8:30 p.m.
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9 p.m.
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10 p.m
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According to Jim (C)
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Rodney (C)
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Commander-in-Chief
(D)
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Boston Legal (D)
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CBS
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8 p.m.
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9 p.m.
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10 p.m.
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NCIS (D)
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Amazing Race (R)
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Close to Home (D)
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Fox
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8 p.m.
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9 p.m.
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Bones (D)
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House (D)
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NBC
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8 p.m.
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9 p.m.
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9:30 p.m.
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10 p.m.
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The Biggest Loser (R)
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My Name is Earl (C)
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The Office (C)
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Law & Order: Special Victims Unit
(D)
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UPN
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8 p.m.
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9 p.m.
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America’s Next Top Model Encore (R)
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Sex, Love & Secrets (D)
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WB
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8 p.m.
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9 p.m
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Gilmore Girls (D)
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Supernatural (D)
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C
= comedy, D = drama, M = movie, N = Newsmagazine, R = reality Source:
Media Life
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Sept. 20, 2005
©
2005
Media Life
-
Toni Fitzgerald is a staff writer for
Media Life.
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