Much has been made of the so-called Lost Boys, the group of males 18-34 who last year were reported to be disappearing en masse from broadcast TV. 
   Well, it turns out the Lost Boys may actually be the Never Beens.
   It's certainly true that the internet is drawing off eyeballs, especially younger eyeballs, from traditional media. But perhaps a bigger issue, and one that's seldom discussed, is that there are simply fewer young people ages 18-34 out there.
    In a recent report on the state of radio, Joe Shamwell, director of market research for ABC Radio, says a big reason why audiences appear to be shrinking in younger demos is because as more senior baby boomers age into the older demographic profiles there are far fewer younger people to take their place.
   “When media targets younger demos, they’re noticing so-called shrinking audiences,” says Shamwell. “They forget to recall that there’s 30 million less Generation X-ers than baby boomers.”
   For example in the Washington, D.C., area, the 25-34 sub-demo has shrunk in actual population by nearly 50,000 people between 1997 and 2005, reports Shamwell. And that trend holds true in almost every other major market.
    That 18-34 population hole, which includes portions of the 18-49 and 25-54 demos so commonly targeted by marketers, came about when a high percentage of baby boomers decided to put off having kids until later in life. 
   “What people might be wondering is, where did these people go? My god, they were never born,” says Shamwell.
   Another disturbing trend Shamwell points out is occurring at the older end of the baby boom generation. As generations go, it's one that's defied all the rules, and it's doing so by working longer than prior generations. Baby boomers are simply that much more active. Yet these more senior boomers are all but ignored by marketers, who persist in targeting the traditional 18-49 and 25-54 demos.
   “Thirty years ago, 60 years old was old,” he says. “Now it’s late middle age” says Shamwell. Of these older baby boomers, he says, "They’re off the radar screen."
   It's a large body of people to ignore. 
   Here's a startling example: Between 1997 and 2005 in D.C., the 25-44 age group lost 15,322 people while the 55-64 group grew by 214,094. In that market the 25-54 demo’s share shrunk from 61.3 percent to 55.8 percent in that period, while the 35-64 group grew to a 51.2 percent share, up from 48.5 percent eight years ago. 
   These numbers have very practical implications.
   “If you’re a radio station targeting 25-44s, you may be losing traction because there aren’t the same number of bodies as there was seven or eight years ago," Shamwell says. "In New York, a program that targets a 25-34-year-old person is now going after 72,000 less people, despite the fact that the rest of the population has grown substantially.”
   In terms of media planners and buyers, Shamwell says many of them are Gen X-ers working on a paradigm handed down to them from baby boomers.
   “When a magazine or radio station or TV network isn’t delivering the same size audience, guess who’s getting blamed?” he asks.
   “Media. Not the hole in population.”