|
Deeper Fox swamp
with Berman gone
Yes, it's No. 1, but the
weeds underneath are thick
As Fox entertainment president, Gail Berman
engineered one of the most impressive turnarounds in recent history,
bringing Fox from dead last among the Big Four in adults 18-49 last fall to its probable
first-ever No. 1 season finish in the demo this spring.
When word leaked yesterday that Berman was leaving Fox for
Paramount Pictures, speculation began immediately about who would succeed
her. That person will inherit the No. 1 show on television, “American
Idol,” and the top-rated network among 18-34s and teens.
But he or she will also face a raft of problems hidden by the
success Fox has had this season. In fact, the network’s schedule is much
weaker than it looks at first glance.
It is a schedule held up by one tentpole, “Idol,” and it’s
not clear when and how quickly the show will lose its steam.
Berman certainly gets credit for nurturing promising shows
that happen to lag in the ratings, such as "24" during its first
season, “House” before it got its boost from "Idol," and “Arrested
Development” through its entire existence. Still, the network has not
built a hit without an “Idol” lead-in for several years.
Its experiment with year-round scheduling last summer hit a
major bump when audiences proved uninterested in fall-style scripted fare
during the warmer months.
And the baseball playoffs, while a source of strong ratings
last fall, severely hamstring the launch of Fox’s fall schedule, a
problem that even Berman never quite solved, leaving Fox in fourth place
among 18-49s entering the January return of “Idol” the past three
years.
The most pressing, and least predictable, issue for whomever takes
over as Fox's programming chief is “Idol.” It can't last forever. How
much longer can it go?
No one really knows. This year even Berman predicted that the show’s
upcoming fourth season would be weaker. Instead, it debuted to an even
bigger audience than last year before leveling off.
Last season “Idol” closed rather limply after several
favored contestants were booted early. The show will certainly power Fox
to No. 1 this spring, but beyond that it’s unclear how potent it will
be.
Like any reality show, "Idol's" ratings depend very
much on the appeal of its contestants. That explains fluctuations as a
particular season goes forward, and from season to season.
But there is also a wearing effect over time, and that's far less
predictable. At some point audiences simply say enough. It can come quickly
and without forewarning, as happened with two ABC shows, “The Bachelor”
and “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire.”
The big danger for Fox is that it ends up where ABC was after
'Millionaire's” collapse, suddenly in a ratings tumble without any
promising shows to slide into those scheduling gaps. As the case of ABC so
brilliantly illustrates, it can take several years to rebuild a schedule.
Does Fox have several years left in "Idol?"
Fox’s new shows have been mostly varying degrees of flops
the past two years. “24” and the fading “Simpsons” are the only
two shows that could be labeled hits that are not fueled by “Idol.”
The new Fox chief will have to not only develop great shows—after
all, “Arrested Development” is a great show—but find an audience for
them. For all her success in scheduling “Idol,” Berman never quite
figured out how to do that.
This new person will be confronted by these problems quicker
than expected, too. Fox has only two months until the upfronts, and though
some of its pilots, like the drama “Reunion” and the Alicia
Silverstone project “Queen B,” have received decent buzz, media people
will be wary. They always are when a network is in turmoil.
Who that person will be is the other question facing Fox, and
that answer is just as unclear.
Early rumors have FX president Peter Liguori, 20th Century
Fox Television president Dana Walden, and Fox Television Studios president
Angela Shapiro in the running.
Former WB CEO Jordan Levin should also be among the
candidates.
Liguori in particular has had much success developing highly rated and
well-regarded programming at FX, including “Nip/Tuck,” “The Shield”
and “Rescue Me.”
Berman, the longest-serving president among the current Big
Four network heads, took over in 2000. She served as president of Regency
TV and Sandollar TV before that.
Last year she inherited full control of Fox scheduling when
Fox TV Entertainment Group chair Sandy Grushow left. Since then, Fox
finished second among 18-49s to NBC last year and won the February sweeps
this year, powered by “Idol” and the Super Bowl.
Media people were skeptical of Berman’s abilities when
Grushow left. Media Life ran a poll shortly after his departure in which
we asked, “Was Fox right not to replace Grushow?” and only 20.3
percent of respondents answered, “Yes, Berman can turn things around”
while half said “Yes in the short term, but it should consider a
replacement this spring if it can’t bounce back.” Thirty percent
thought Fox should have brought in a replacement for Grushow
immediately.
|
March 23, 2005
©
2005
Media Life
|
|
|
