When it launched four years ago, the National Geographic Channel carried the enormous burden of living up to the prestige of its namesake magazine. It proved a burden indeed. The channel promptly slumped into obscurity.
   The climb out has been a long one, but now, going into upfront ad-selling season, National Geographic Channel has at last some real momentum working for it.
   Largely behind that momentum is John Ford, the network’s programming chief since July 2003.
   A 14-year Discovery Networks veteran credited with turning the sleepy Learning Channel into top-10 ranked TLC, Ford is now nudging National Geographic Channel away from the stodgy image of the magazine and closer to the general-interest format of networks like Discovery.
   With a programming budget that doubled last year, Ford has been putting together a lineup of shows generating some buzz among viewers and media buyers, including the recently renewed “Seconds from Disaster,” the early evening program “The Dog Whisperer,” and “Unlocking DaVinci’s Code: The Full Story.” Tapping into the popularity of the book “The DaVinci Code,” the special in December became the first program on National Geographic Channel to pull an audience of more than 1 million people.
   This is something network executives are happy to talk about. “For more than a year we have had the fastest-growing ratings in television, during which our audience delivery has grown dramatically, both in terms of size and caliber,” says Laureen Ong, president of National Geographic Channel.
   “We have broken one record after another, and this continuous momentum is the result of a carefully orchestrated slate of strong series and specials that attract quality audiences on a regular basis.”

The network's identity
   For most of the past four years, National Geographic, which is partly owned by Fox Cable Networks, did little to build ratings or viewer interest. That partly reflects the network’s primary focus for most of that time, which was to build its distribution.
   But that began to change with the arrival of Ford, who joined National Geographic Channel as it began approaching distribution in 50 million homes, the level at which many national advertisers first think about using a cable network.
   “You can consider this a transitionary period for them,” says Zach Rosenberg, executive vice president and general manager of Horizon Media’s western region. “[Ford] seems to be having a great impact, but it still seems like there’s a limited opportunity with this network because they don’t yet have a signature show, which they need just to get them to a 1 household rating. This guy has a good reputation and could probably make it happen.”

The network's target audience
   National Geographic targets adults 25-54. During the day it does that with shows such as “Dog Whisperer.” At night it does that with shows like “MegaStructures” and “In the Womb,” a special that was watched by 3 million people last Sunday, a record audience for the network.

The network's ratings
   National Geographic Channel’s average audience, while tiny, is posting significant year-to-year increases.
   National Geographic’s 25-54 audience on a total-day basis was up 88 percent, to 60,000 people, according to Nielsen Media Research. In primetime, National Geographic Channel’s audience in the demo was up 100 percent in fourth quarter, to an average 112,000 people. That puts it alongside networks like the Weather Channel.
   But that is still relatively small. As a point of comparison, National Geographic’s primetime audience in the demo was one-fifth the size of Discovery Channel’s audience.
   The disparity with top-tier networks will change if National Geographic Channel’s distribution continues to grow.
   The network is now in 52.6 million homes, up fivefold from its debut in January 2001. At that time, media buyers considered 10 million homes a disappointment for a network with the name recognition and built-in fan base of National Geographic Magazine.

The network's competitive set
   When National Geographic launched it jumped into a programming genre dominated by Discovery, Discovery’s other networks, and other networks that target older men, such as History Channel.
   Four years later, National Geographic remains in that battle, but it has two things going for it. Discovery has been slumping--its primetime audience in fourth quarter fell 13 percent from a year earlier--while National Geographic has been gradually generating buzz and pulling better ratings.

What’s new for 2005/06
   National Geographic’s Ford will continue to roll out high-profile specials like this week’s “Surviving Hurricane Floyd” and “The Tornado Hunters.”
  And after “Explorer” bounced around cable networks like MSNBC for a few years, National Geographic Channel now has the show.

The network's upfront outlook
   National Geographic Channel’s pitch this upfront will be that it’s a fast-growing network. It will point to record audiences for specials like “Unlocking DaVinci’s Code” and “In the Womb.” And it will underscore that it is now available in more than 50 million homes.
  But while media buyers are starting to take notice, most also recognize that the third-tier network still has a long way to go before it competes with networks like Discovery.

The final prognosis
   On a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being excellent: 3.5.
   With Ford in charge of programming, National Geographic is in the early stages of significant growth. It has the name recognition of the magazine. It has broken audience records with specials like “In the Womb.” And its distribution is still growing.
   Yet the network hasn’t quite lived up to the hype of its debut in 2001.
   It doesn’t have a signature show that will deliver reliable ratings week to week rather than a special-heavy schedule that occasionally delivers decent ratings. That may change this year, but so far it hasn’t.