The Weather Channel is worrying a bit less about the weather than it has in the past.
   Going into the upfront, the Weather Channel will tell media buyers at its presentation on Friday that it is about to up the ante on its two-year foray into long-form programs, at the risk of alienating the most hardcore weather watchers.
   The network will continue with a strategy launched in 2003 that is meant to lure viewers to primetime, hardly the peak hours for watching weather reports, and to even out the waves of viewer disinterest and interest throughout the day that come with good and bad weather.
   Patrick Scott, president of the Weather Channel Networks, says viewers are more likely to tune in to watch personalities and programs like "Storm Stories" than for news readily available on the internet and local television stations.
   “You can get weather at a commodity level from numerous sources,” he says.
   “What we’re trying to do is add value by understanding what [our viewers'] needs are and meeting those needs. We’re doing that with a bit more sophistication than by what’s cold, wet or dry.”
   Scott says the Weather Channel’s core viewers don’t feel alienated by the direction the network is taking, but instead are watching for longer periods of time, a key factor in driving up ratings.
   “The people who are surprised by long-form are the people who simply dip in and dip out,” he says. “But for the quick-dip viewer we carry the weather strip at the bottom of the screen all the time.”

The network's identity
   The Weather Channel, its online site weather.com and, to a lesser degree, its digital network Weatherscan, have become the turn-to source for 24-hour weather reports. Still, the audience watching Weather Channel remains tiny most of the day.
   The network, as it will tell reporters at a news conference tomorrow and media buyers on Friday, plans to increase its audience with more long-form programs.
   “The potential is great for them,” says Brad Adgate, senior vice president and corporate research director at Horizon Media. “There are two ways to increase ratings. One is to get more viewers; the other is to get viewers you already have to watch more. By creating hour-long shows it affords the opportunity to increase ratings while maintaining its core audience by remaining weather-related.”

The network's target audience
   The Weather Channel primarily targets adults 25-54, notably business people and travelers. In the early morning, which Horizon’s Adgate calls Weather Channel’s primetime, it targets these viewers with morning-news-show-type programs like “First Outlook” and “Your Weather Today.”

The network's ratings
   In the last week of February, the Weather Channel’s adult 25-54 audience in primetime dipped 17 percent from the same time a year earlier, to 150,000 people. And its total-day audience was down 12 percent.
   Weather Channel’s Scott says dips are typical for weeks when the weather is relatively uneventful. He points to full-year 2004 ratings, saying the average takes into account viewing peaks and valleys.
   The network’s primetime audience in its core demo was up 19 percent, on a year-to-year basis, to 189,000 people. Its total-day audience was up 21 percent in 2004. Notes Adgate, “Their ratings last summer were strong because of the hurricanes in Florida."

The network's competitive set
   “The local TV stations have always had the biggest share of weather and weather viewing,” says Scott. “That has been fairly constant for the 23 years of our existence. And there is a relatively new phenomenon of broadcasters putting up 24/7 weather services. Now NBC is doing one.”

What’s new for 2005/06
   The Weather Channel won’t unveil its programming plans until tomorrow, but Scott says the network will continue to branch out into long-form shows.
   “Every TV network is trying to grow its viewership in an ever more competitive world,” he says. “But at the same time we have a franchise we will never get away from. It’s not an evolution away from the franchise. It’s about giving people what they want within that franchise.”

The network's upfront outlook
   The Weather Channel has one major advantage over most networks going into the ad-selling season and one minor disadvantage.
   Its strength is that it’s TiVo-proof, according to Adgate. The vast majority of viewers don’t record the news or weather, so advertisers aren’t worrying about consumers zipping past commercials.
   The Weather Channel’s weakness is that it’s not part of a multimedia giant like Viacom or NBC Universal, so advertisers looking for cross-platform deals have few options but to look elsewhere. But media people say that’s a minor strike against Weather Channel.

The final prognosis
   On a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being excellent: 4.
   For more than two decades the Weather Channel has been building itself into a recognizable brand. It is available in 88.5 million homes. It’s also well established online and now, with Weatherscan, it’s catering to the most hardcore weather watchers.
   Media people say last month’s audience slide points to the network’s greatest challenge: luring viewers when the weather’s nice. 
   Because the Weather Channel cannot change the weather, it’s adapting with long-form programs. The risk is that it will alienate viewers who are tuning in expecting to see a chatting weather forecaster. The upside is that it stands to attract that many more viewers, and for a longer viewing periods, if it succeeds.