When the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences announces its Emmy nominations Thursday, viewers can expect snubs for a number of deserving actors, actresses and shows, if tradition serves.

   It's a safe bet, for example, that “Gilmore Girls” and “Scrubs” will be passed over again.
  But it's no less a safe bet, tradition being what it is, that the Academy will again honor shows and actors well beyond their prime and long past deserving more than a polite good-bye.

   Certainly, “Lost,” “Desperate Housewives” and “House” will push some old codgers from the ballots. But sentiment and familiarity will still rule Thursday’s nominations, instead of talent and innovation.

    Here are Media Life’s picks for five shows and actors who don’t deserve nominations but will likely get them. Following we'll offer up five who do deserve recognition but appear sure to be passed over.

Five that don’t:

 The Sheens (Martin & Charlie) 
    Martin Sheen wasn’t on “The West Wing” enough last season to warrant a Best Actor in a Drama nomination. In fact, the show’s creative resurgence came when the focus moved from the White House to the campaign trail. 
   And while Charlie Sheen’s “Two and a Half Men” is fun, all Sheen does is play a bad boy with an eye twitch, which is to say himself. Co-star Jon Cryer deserves a Best Actor in a Comedy nod. If Charlie gets it, it will be because his last name is Sheen.

CBS’s “CSI”
    At least five other dramas (“Lost,” “Law & Order: SVU,” “House,” “Veronica Mars,” “Deadwood,” even an uneven “24”) had better seasons than TV’s most-watched show.

NBC’s “Will & Grace”
    The show has become an unintentional parody. Even its superlative cast seems bored. There are more worthy Best Comedy nominees on UPN, the WB, HBO and even struggling NBC.

Patricia Heaton, Deborah on CBS’s “Everybody Loves Raymond” 
   She's a very competent actress who's been betrayed by her writers. Her put-upon wife thing has gotten old after almost a decade. All four “Housewives” leads deserve Best Actress in a Comedy consideration ahead of Heaton. She'll get it simply because her show ended, which is as dumb a reason as one could imagine.

Five that do:

WB’s “Gilmore Girls”
    The show has the best cast on TV, yes, even better than “Housewives.” None has ever received an Emmy nomination. If the Academy can’t recognize Lauren Graham, it could at least give the show a Best Comedy nod.

John C. McGinley, Dr. Cox on NBC’s “Scrubs”
    He delivers the longest, funniest one-liners on TV. If Zach Braff is the heart of this excellent show, McGinley is the brains.

Gregory Smith, Ephram on WB’s “Everwood” 
    He keeps a show that could be all sap and angst from becoming a bad soap. Case in point: High school student Ephram learns that he not only impregnated his ex-girlfriend but she's given the baby up for adoption. Smith keeps the melodrama to a minimum and makes viewers truly hurt for Ephram. That's called acting.

Kristen Bell, Veronica on UPN’s “Veronica Mars”
    Since the Academy lives in a five-channel universe--the Big Four and HBO--voters undoubtedly have not seen UPN’s cult gem. They should. Bell plays the most realistic high school student since Claire Danes in “My So-Called Life.”

Peter Gallagher, Sandy on Fox’s “The O.C.” 
    The show had a bad season but Gallagher provided, as always, its moral center. He conveys more with one eyebrow than the entire cast of “North Shore” could emote in a season.