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Don't count out
NBC just quite yet
It's only January, way too early to call the season
By Diego Vasquez
With the television midseason
begun, things couldn't look worse for NBC, now in third place among
adult viewers 18-49, or better for CBS and ABC. Indeed,
conventional wisdom would tell us that CBS will most surely win the
season with NBC coming in at No. 3.
But television is a business full of surprises, one in
which conventional wisdom is often trumped.
In any case, it's certainly too early to write off NBC.
Lest we forget, it was a year ago, when NBC was in similarly dire
circumstances, that it rolled out "The Apprentice," a show
with modest expectations that quickly became a hit and gave NBC a
season win.
While NBC is unlikely to see such another surprise hit
this midseason, it has some cause for hope. On Monday night its new
drama, “Medium” starring Patricia Arquette, gave the network
something it has rarely had this season—a competitive performance
head-to-head against one of TV’s most popular shows. The new
series, airing at 9, averaged a 6.3 18-49 rating, good for a solid
second place behind CBS’ “CSI: Miami,” which pulled a 6.7.
Two other new NBC shows, “Committed,” a sitcom that
aired last night, and the “Top Model”-esque “Sports
Illustrated: Swimsuit Model Search,” which debuts tonight, are not
expected to do brilliantly but they don't really have to in order to
better NBC's season average, since both slide into timeslots of
canceled shows, "Father of the Pride" and
"Hawaii" respectively.
And they could do considerably better.
"Committed" improved upon "Pride's" season
average by nearly a point last night, according to Nielsen
overnights.
NBC also has good reason to be optimistic about
its “Law & Order” franchise. True, two of the three current
“L&O” shows are down year-to-year, but they've been airing
against much headier competition this season. While they are hurting,
they are not wilting.
The original “Law & Order” has averaged a 4.2 rating
in its Wednesday 10 p.m. timeslot, down 24 percent versus the 5.5 it
was averaging a year ago. But it's airing against CBS’s hot rookie
“CSI: NY.”
Sunday night’s “Law & Order: Criminal Intent”
is averaging a 4.0 in 18-49s, down 15 percent from a 4.7 last
year. But that decline is against ABC’s ultra-hot “Desperate
Housewives.”
The remaining “L&O,” “Special Victims
Unit,” is actually up from last year, and by 10 percent, averaging
a 5.3 in 18-49s versus last season's 4.8 average.
In the spring, NBC will roll out the fourth in the franchise,
“Law & Order: Trial by Jury,” and the show can reasonably be
expected to pull at least a 4.0 in 18-49s. And anything it does over
the network's overall 3.7 rating will help.
Of the Big Four broadcast networks, CBS has the most
solid schedule and the fewest midseason changes, which puts it
at the least risk of a tumble in ratings. Barring a disaster, a
season win would seem assured. The issue is by how much of an edge.
The network is in first place among viewers 18-49
season-to-date with a 4.0 average rating. At this point last season
the network was tied for second and ended up third behind NBC and
Fox.
ABC is currently in a surprising second place season-to-date
among 18-49s, averaging a 3.8 rating in the demo. No matter what
happens the rest of the year, the network can call this season a
success based on the hits “Lost” and “Desperate Housewives.”
ABC's one major vulnerability could be Monday night,
with “Monday Night Football” now done for the season. Last year
at this point the network was averaging a 3.6 18-49 rating, but by
the time the season ended that number had slipped 11.1 percent to a
3.2.
But this season, ABC is strengthening Mondays with the
returning "Bachelorette" at 9 p.m. and a spinoff of its very
successful "Extreme Makeover: Home Edition" at 8 p.m.
Both should considerably better the network's Monday night
performance versus a year ago.
The wild card going into the midseason is Fox.
Back in October, the Boston Red Sox's improbable
comeback against the New York Yankees had boosted Fox’s 18-49
ratings, giving Fox a cushion it hoped would carry it until the
return of "American Idol" at midseason. That cushion lost
its stuffing in November and December, and Fox now finds itself
solidly in fourth place with a 3.3 season-to-date 18-49 average.
For Fox, all depends on the return of “Idol”
Jan. 18.
Last season at this point, Fox was at a 3.7 18-49
average, but was able to raise that 10.8 percent to a 4.1 by season’s
end with lots of help from “Idol.” But even a 10 percent boost
in its current rating would barely get the network out of fourth
place.
“Idol” must do all that much better this season to
make up the difference. And that is not likely.
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Jan. 5, 2005
©
2005
Media Life
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Diego Vasquez is a staff writer for
Media Life.
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