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For 'Alias,' on the
high wire w/o a net
It could soar in its new post- 'Lost' slot. If not . . .
By Brian Tallerico
After
three seasons of fat budgets and slim ratings, “Alias” is
finally in its best position to become a hit in its new Wednesday 9 p.m. timeslot, leading out of the
hit show “Lost.”
And with all the critical praise it has received, the
show should do well when its new season debuts this Wednesday with a
two-hour premiere.
But if “Alias” doesn't catch with viewers, it
could well spell the end for the spook series from J.J. Abrams,
who's also "Lost's" creator.
Abrams
owes the switch from the show's old Sunday night slot to the success
of “Desperate
Housewives.” ABC had delayed the spy drama’s return until
midseason to see how "Housewives" would do in its old
slot. When it took off, ABC saw it as an opportunity to switch
"Alias" to a night and a time period that would determine
once and for all whether the show could find an audience.
But in doing so, ABC executives could also appreciate that if
the show failed to catch, it would be far easier to finally cut.
Since its premiere, “Alias” has been a
critical darling and cult favorite but never found a mainstream
audience. What kept it from being axed, more than anything, was that
ABC couldn't afford to chop it. The network was doing too poorly,
which meant it had to hold onto any show with any promise.
But all that changed with the new season and the huge success of “Lost” and “Desperate Housewives.”
With two solid hits, it's in a far better position to slash shows
that aren't performing.
Still,
ABC is promoting "Alias's" season premiere with great
commitment, including a massive marketing push with billboards, banners
and internet advertisements to give “Alias” its best shot at
finding ratings.
The show has also been re-jiggered in order to attract a wider audience,
with a move to episodes with self-contained plotlines. Among the
criticisms was the show's reliance on overly complicated plotlines,
which meant viewers who missed episodes had to struggle over weeks
to catch up. The series will also run without repeats.
How well does "Alias" have to do for ABC to
consider it a success in its new time slot?
Airing
at 9 p.m. Sunday last season, “Alias” averaged 8.2 million total viewers, down 9 percent versus the previous year. It ranked No.
48 among viewers 18-49 with a 3.5 average.
In its Wednesday move, it slips into the timeslot
occupied by “The Bachelor” earlier this season. That show
averaged a 3.7 18-49 rating.
For
its season finale last season, “Alias” drew a
higher-than-average but “Bachelor”-like 3.7 18-49 rating, but
with the amount of time and energy devoted to not only this
season’s premiere but the first three years of the show, ABC will
be hoping for bigger numbers on the new night.
ABC
has done this before, with a huge marketing blitz and prime
post-Super Bowl slot for the show in January 2003. Ratings weren’t quite what was expected—17.4 million total
viewers and an 8.2 rating among viewers 18-49, record lows for the
post-Super Bowl slot.
The
hype and positioning of this week’s premiere will likely provide a
ratings boost for “Alias,” but ABC needs viewers to keep coming
back.
For
its last new episode, “Lost” drew a 7.0 rating among 18-49. This
week’s number should be similar for the Abrams hit. Yet even an 80
percent retention rate seems like a stretch.
Even
if they do stay for the “Alias” premiere, the question is how
many people will stick around in future weeks? And how many does ABC
need to stay tuned to justify the budget of the show and its
marketing? The show’s main competitor will emerge later when
Fox’s “American Idol” results show begins airing Wednesdays
at 9 p.m.
ABC would likely be very happy with around a 5.0 18-49 rating
for Wednesday’s premiere, still larger than the 3.5 it averaged on
Sundays last year.
But
if “Alias” endures too much of a ratings hit while going
head-to-head with “Idol” results, there may not be a season five
premiere to market.
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Jan 4, 2005
©
2005
Media Life
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Brian Tallerico is a Chicago writer.
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