There won’t be any big surprises at VH1’s upfront presentation next Tuesday, save one possibility, the naming of a replacement for president Christina Norman.
   Norman is widely expected to move over to sister network MTV. But outside that, the onetime music video channel will stick to its current course, which for the past two years has meant being a venue for unscripted shows teaming with B-level celebrities. That followed VH1’s “Behind the Music” era.
   There’s good reason for VH1 to continue doing what it’s doing.
   The young-skewing network’s audience is up 16 percent over last year in primetime among its core 18-49 demographic. That is due in large part to programs that, while hardly critical favorites, attract viewers with celebrities playing out versions of their real lives.
   “Last year was our highest rated ever, and this year is on track to be the highest rated ever,” says Brian Graden, president of entertainment at MTV Networks Music Group.
   “We’ve done a slight repositioning to really become more celebratory. There’s a light and fun quality to it, which you see in retro programming like ‘I Love the 80s’ and ‘Surreal Life.’”
   VH1 this year will launch a slew of new and returning series, including the fifth installment of “Surreal Life,” a program that had its initial run on the WB and in its next version will again have faded celebrities sharing a house, this time including Omarosa Manigault-Stallworth from NBC’s first “Apprentice” and Bronson Pinchot from the 1980s ABC sitcom “Perfect Strangers.”
   VH1 is also bringing back shows like weight-loss program “Celebrity Fit Club” while adding more programs, including KISS bassist Gene Simmons in “Rock School” and Mick Jagger’s ex Jerry Hall looking for a guy in “Kept.”


The network's identity
   VH1’s so-called celebreality programs, meaning shows like “Surreal Life” and its spinoff, “Strange Love” with Brigitte Nielsen and Flavor Flav, are only part of the network’s brand identity, according to Graden.
   The network also has celebrities, albeit minor ones, serving as talking heads in shows like “Best Week Ever.” VH1 will also continue acquiring movies like this past February’s “8 Mile” with Eminem.
   And celebrities pop up in more organic ways, including Bruce Springsteen in this month’s “Storytellers,” a program that has musicians performing and talking about their lives and songs.
   “Music is still very much part of what we do,” says Graden.


The network's target audience
   Although not a stated mission, VH1 is meant to pick up the twenty- and thirty-somethings who’ve grown out of MTV.
   Where MTV’s viewers have a median age of 22 years, VH1’s audience has a median age of 26. Graden says the network targets adults 18-49 but says 30 is VH1’s sweet spot.


The network's ratings
   On occasion VH1 gets serious, as it does each year with the “Save the Music” concert that encourages schools to offer music classes.
   But for the most part the network provides little in the way of intellectually challenging fare. Which is the point. And it’s working. VH1’s primetime audience in first quarter was up 19 percent over last year, to an average 613,000 people. Its 18-49 audience grew 16 percent.
   On an all-day basis its audience was up 19 percent, to 363,000 people, while its 18-49 audience grew 15 percent. VH1’s audience was up even more among 18-34s, with a 29 percent jump in primetime and an increase of 22 percent for the entire day.


The network's competitive set
   VH1 distinguishes itself from other networks by dredging up celebrities who haven’t had a script in their hands for years. But ultimately VH1’s heavy reliance on reality puts it in direct competition with a slew of other networks equally reliant on the genre, including MTV, Bravo, increasingly TV Land, and even networks like TLC that typically attract the older end of VH1’s 18-49 target audience.


What’s new for 2005/06
   Taking its cue from its larger sister network MTV, VH1 is forever rolling out new shows, with a few hitting, many sputtering, and others fading so fast there are dozens of celebrities whose shot at a comeback was whisked away before it could take off.
   That isn’t about to change.
   VH1 recently launched “Love Lounge,” which has celebrities dispensing relationship advice. This summer it will add shows like “Kept,” “Strip Search,” a competition for male dancers, the second installment of “Celebrity Fit Club,” and “Hogan Knows Best,” a look at the fathering skills of former wrestler Hulk Hogan.
   Upcoming shows include “Rock School” and “BSTV,” which is about people trying to become famous. “BSTV” premieres next month.


The network's upfront outlook
   When VH1 rolls out its upcoming shows,  and potentially a new president, to media buyers on Tuesday it will do so alongside MTV.
   VH1’s story will be its strong ratings and new shows that stick close to the unscripted formula that’s propping up those ratings. But if that doesn’t convince buyers the network is doing well, its close association with MTV will certainly help.
    MTV has a lock on the young viewers advertisers struggle to find, so VH1, by association, will get a piece of the upfront windfall.


The final prognosis
   On a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being excellent: 3.5.
   VH1 attracts the young viewers many advertisers are trying to reach while putting its own mark on the ubiquitous reality genre.
   Moreover, while the celebreality sub-genre and celebrity talking heads shtick often feel played out, VH1’s ratings suggest so far they aren’t.

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